Programming Pauls of Wisdom

Future Problems

THis is notes for a longer post

For IT managers there are 4 paradigm shifts coming

Disks are becoming tapes
Parallel programming
Information security is as busted as DRM


Disks are becoming tapes
http://www.acmqueue.org/modules.php?name=Content&pa=showpage&pid=43
We need to recognise that for a randomly fragmented hard disk of 20TB (the theorectical limit with current technology) the time to access and output the whole disk is nearly a year.
A Year.

Parallel programming
Erlang my friends. Learn Erlang.
8 cores is pretty much standard for a server now, even buying less than two is hard.
But most code runs on just 1 core, and anything I write certainly does.
WHen 32 cores comes on line, is there going to be a benefit in running your apps 32 times faster or cheaper than mine. Probably.

Both the above lead to the much heralded Grid computing - we will treat computing like we treat electricity - ubiquitous and commoditised.

I just do not beleive it.

I can see how already commoditised services will be gridified - but lets face it the reason organisations use IT is two-fold: to not lose cost advantages from not doing what everyone else does (the move from letters and memos to email) and to gain competitive advantage by doing something better than others.

The first one will be gridified - if your email system works like everyone elses, you do not lose out. But most of the driving force for new IT is to gain a competitive advantage - to be able to do what others cannot. And that can, by defintion, not be commodity.

Information security is as busted as DRM

I have a database of important IP stuff. Lots of data. I can let it out of the firewall enclosure if I encrypt it. But the only way it is of value is if someone can work on it - in the same way that a DRM protected song is only of value if it eventually is played through earphones.
No matter what I do, unless excel and word and every other possible end client program uses the same DRM to protect my data, I am as busted as EMI.

I cannot concieve of this happening. Excel to prevent cutting and pasting?

posted by paul @ 4:34 AM